000
AXNT20 KNHC 020616
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: 
Active tropical waves are going to provide increasing moisture
across the central and western Caribbean Sea for the next several
days. Meanwhile a persistent upper-level trough over western Cuba
and southward will sustain divergent flow across the area through
next Friday. Expect strong thunderstorms capable of producing
dangerous lightnings, heavy rain and gusty winds near these
locations through Friday. Heavy rain can cause flash flooding,
especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains where soil is
already saturated by earlier rainfall. The heaviest rain is
forecast from Tue to Fri. Residents living in these locations need
to stay alert and listen to their local weather/emergency
management offices for the latest information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 12N southward, 
and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 39W and 43W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is over Barbados near 58W from 15N
southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 12N to 15N between 55W and 60W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from near the Cayman
Islands southward to central Panama, and moving west around 10 
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N 
to 15N between 77W and 81W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is near the Cayman Islands and Island of Youth.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to 07N120W. 
An ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 07N20W to 06N39W and , 
then from 05N43W to 09N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is present south of the trough from 05N to 09N between 
the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 15W. Scattered moderate 
convection is found up to 150 nm north, and up to 100 nm south of 
the ITCZ segments.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Convergent southeasterly winds are joined forces with a mid-level
trough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms at the
central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extends
southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico.
Fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
noted at the south-central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for
the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the modest ridge will dominate the Gulf waters 
through the next several days, supporting generally moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate 
winds in the eastern Gulf, except for locally strong winds pulsing
near the northern and western portions of the Yucatan peninsula 
through tonight. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over 
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next 
couple of days with reducing visibility at times.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 

A surface trough over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern Cuba
and the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to
ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the southwestern 
and south- central basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE 
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen at the eastern and north-central
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft 
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to 
strong trade winds across the central basin through early Mon, 
with seas building to around 9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also 
expected over portions of the western basin just over southern 
Jamaica adjacent waters as a tropical wave moves across the region
through Sun afternoon. Inclement weather related to the tropical
wave will gradually shift westward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central 
Atlantic across 31N56W to 27N63W, then continues as a stationary
front to 23N72W. Patchy showers are seen up to 80 nm along either
side of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds farther
southwest of this boundary are triggering scattered moderate
convection from 23N to 30N between 51W and 62W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist
north of 22N between the cold/stationary front and the 
Florida/Georgia coast, including the northwest and central 
Bahamas. Mainly gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident north 
of 20N between 22W and the cold/stationary front. Near the Canary 
and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate N to NNE winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft are seen north of 15N between the Africa coast and 22W/30W. 
For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 22W and the 
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas are noted. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with
4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail elsewhere in 
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold/stationary front is expected 
to become entirely stationary along 25N by early Sun and weaken 
into a surface trough by Mon evening. Energy associated with a 
convectively active tropical wave, currently over the western 
Caribbean will lift north-northeastward and merge with this 
trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift eastward and move
into the central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu into Fri. Fresh 
SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough as it crosses the 
northern offshore waters. 

$$

Chan