900
AXPZ20 KNHC 190324
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 19 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb located over northern
Colombia near 10N74W to 08N86W to 14N100W to a 1010 mb low
pressure situated near 11N108W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 13N between 93W and 103W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas in
NW swell to 7 ft. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California,
light to gentle winds are ongoing with moderate seas of 5 to 7
ft in SW swell, except slight seas to 3 ft over the Gulf of
California. Reduced visibility is likely over the S and SW
offshore zones of Mexico due to agricultural fires.
For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the
Baja California peninsula along with lower pressures over Mexico
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds over
the offshore waters of Baja Peninsula today, increasing to locally
strong speeds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia tonight
through Mon night. Large NW swell is forecast to impact the outer
waters of Baja California Norte beginning on Mon. Seas of 8 to 9
ft are likely expected N of Punta Eugenia through mid- week.
Disorganized showers located a couple hundred miles to the south
of the coast of southern Mexico have diminished. Environmental
conditions in the area have become unfavorable, and development
of this system is not expected.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds are ongoing over the Central America
offshore waters along with moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range
due to long period SW swell.
For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11N-12N will
help to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the Central America waters over the next couple of days. Winds
will remain moderate or weaker trough early next week. Southerly
swell propagating across the regional waters will support seas of
4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft across the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands later today into Mon.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is
forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N to 13N west of
135W per scatterometer data. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range
within these winds. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the monsoon
trough near 11N108W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
noted on the SE semicircle of the low center to about 08N.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 6 to 8 ft
due to cross equatorial SW swell.
For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast waters N of 10N and W of 110W through the middle of
next week with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate
seas along the southern periphery of its associated ridge. The
high pressure will strengthen later today into Mon bringing some
increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California,
and in the trade wind zone. Long period SW swell will continue to
propagate across the forecast waters today.
$$
GR
